Insights Last Updated: Jun 2 2017 - 10:52 CEST

Here you can find a number of insights we've gained. If you're interested to know something else, feel free to contact us.

Pack Opening Statistics - All Cards Normal and golden cards

Only data is considered where one user has opened at least 100 packs in the set.

CpP = Cards per Pack; PoT = Percentage of Total

All Sets

513,157 packs and 2,565,785 cards total

Rarity	Total	CpP	PoT
Legendaries per 1000 packs: 53.7
Com	1,839,252	3.58	71.68%
Rar	586,534	1.14	22.86%
Epi	112,423	0.22	4.38%
Leg	27,576	0.05	1.07%

Sets Individually

Classic

127,368 packs and 636,840 cards total

Rarity	Total	CpP	PoT
Legendaries per 1000 packs: 56.3
Com	455,580	3.58	71.54%
Rar	145,268	1.14	22.81%
Epi	28,816	0.23	4.52%
Leg	7,176	0.06	1.13%

GvG

437 packs and 2,185 cards total

Rarity	Total	CpP	PoT
Legendaries per 1000 packs: 57.2
Com	1,555	3.56	71.17%
Rar	506	1.16	23.16%
Epi	99	0.23	4.53%
Leg	25	0.06	1.14%

TGT

10,441 packs and 52,205 cards total

Rarity	Total	CpP	PoT
Legendaries per 1000 packs: 53.2
Com	37,372	3.58	71.59%
Rar	12,010	1.15	23.01%
Epi	2,268	0.22	4.34%
Leg	555	0.05	1.06%

TOG

103,748 packs and 518,740 cards total

Rarity	Total	CpP	PoT
Legendaries per 1000 packs: 53.2
Com	371,885	3.58	71.69%
Rar	118,818	1.15	22.91%
Epi	22,516	0.22	4.34%
Leg	5,521	0.05	1.06%

MSG

101,349 packs and 506,745 cards total

Rarity	Total	CpP	PoT
Legendaries per 1000 packs: 52.4
Com	363,577	3.59	71.75%
Rar	115,907	1.14	22.87%
Epi	21,952	0.22	4.33%
Leg	5,309	0.05	1.05%

Un'Goro

169,814 packs and 849,070 cards total

Rarity	Total	CpP	PoT
Legendaries per 1000 packs: 52.9
Com	609,283	3.59	71.76%
Rar	194,025	1.14	22.85%
Epi	36,772	0.22	4.33%
Leg	8,990	0.05	1.06%

Additional Considerations Data as of April 10, 2017

Analysis Bias

This table shows how heavily the calculated legendaries drop rate depends on the data that is considered. If we include data from users that have added less than 100 packs per set, the legendaries drop rate - especially for Un'Goro - decreases.

The most likely explanation is that people who have entered fewer packs have not triggered their pity timers yet, however it's theoretically also possible that Blizzard has changed the pity fuction from set to set.

Packs Threshold	Classic	TOG	MSG	Ungoro
Legendaries per 1000 packs as a function of the packs threshold used for analysis
100	56.9	53.2	52.4	52.6
50	57.6	53.3	51.8	51.5
30	57.4	53.4	51.8	50.6
10	57.7	53.4	51.5	49.3

Statistical Significance

As you can see here, the distribution of legendary drop rates for individual users is a lot sharper for those who have opened at least 200 packs, as opposed to those - in this case - who have opened 50-100 packs.

In conclusion, the less packs you open, the more likely you are to get lucky or unlucky. The more packs you open, the more closely your drop rate will approach the expectation value.

Pack Opening Statistics - Golden Cards Only golden cards

CpP = Cards per Pack; PoT = Percentage of Total

All Sets

All Sets Golden

71,227 cards total

Rarity	Total	CpP	PoT
Legendaries per 1000 packs: 3.4
Com	34,409	0.07	1.34%
Rar	29,508	0.06	1.15%
Epi	5,556	0.01	0.22%
Leg	1,754	0.0	0.07%

Sets Individually

Classic Goldens

19,300 cards total

Rarity	Total	CpP	PoT
Legendaries per 1000 packs: 4.3
Com	9,471	0.07	1.49%
Rar	7,676	0.06	1.21%
Epi	1,605	0.01	0.25%
Leg	548	0.0	0.09%

GvG Goldens

67 cards total

Rarity	Total	CpP	PoT
Legendaries per 1000 packs: 4.6
Com	32	0.07	1.46%
Rar	29	0.07	1.33%
Epi	4	0.01	0.18%
Leg	2	0.0	0.09%

TGT Goldens

1,573 cards total

Rarity	Total	CpP	PoT
Legendaries per 1000 packs: 3.3
Com	743	0.07	1.42%
Rar	664	0.06	1.27%
Epi	132	0.01	0.25%
Leg	34	0.0	0.07%

TOG Goldens

15,324 cards total

Rarity	Total	CpP	PoT
Legendaries per 1000 packs: 3.6
Com	7,384	0.07	1.42%
Rar	6,413	0.06	1.24%
Epi	1,156	0.01	0.22%
Leg	371	0.0	0.07%

MSG Goldens

14,368 cards total

Rarity	Total	CpP	PoT
Legendaries per 1000 packs: 3.4
Com	6,903	0.07	1.36%
Rar	6,019	0.06	1.19%
Epi	1,099	0.01	0.22%
Leg	347	0.0	0.07%

Un'Goro Goldens

20,595 cards total

Rarity	Total	CpP	PoT
Legendaries per 1000 packs: 2.7
Com	9,876	0.06	1.16%
Rar	8,707	0.05	1.03%
Epi	1,560	0.01	0.18%
Leg	452	0.0	0.05%