Insights Last Updated: Jun 2 2017 - 10:52 CEST

Here you can find a number of insights we've gained. If you're interested to know something else, feel free to contact us.


Pack Opening Statistics - All Cards Normal and golden cards

Only data is considered where one user has opened at least 100 packs in the set.

CpP = Cards per Pack; PoT = Percentage of Total

All Sets

All Sets

513,157 packs and 2,565,785 cards total

Rarity Total CpP PoT
Legendaries per 1000 packs: 53.7
Com 1,839,252 3.58 71.68%
Rar 586,534 1.14 22.86%
Epi 112,423 0.22 4.38%
Leg 27,576 0.05 1.07%

Sets Individually

Classic

127,368 packs and 636,840 cards total

Rarity Total CpP PoT
Legendaries per 1000 packs: 56.3
Com 455,580 3.58 71.54%
Rar 145,268 1.14 22.81%
Epi 28,816 0.23 4.52%
Leg 7,176 0.06 1.13%

GvG

437 packs and 2,185 cards total

Rarity Total CpP PoT
Legendaries per 1000 packs: 57.2
Com 1,555 3.56 71.17%
Rar 506 1.16 23.16%
Epi 99 0.23 4.53%
Leg 25 0.06 1.14%

TGT

10,441 packs and 52,205 cards total

Rarity Total CpP PoT
Legendaries per 1000 packs: 53.2
Com 37,372 3.58 71.59%
Rar 12,010 1.15 23.01%
Epi 2,268 0.22 4.34%
Leg 555 0.05 1.06%

TOG

103,748 packs and 518,740 cards total

Rarity Total CpP PoT
Legendaries per 1000 packs: 53.2
Com 371,885 3.58 71.69%
Rar 118,818 1.15 22.91%
Epi 22,516 0.22 4.34%
Leg 5,521 0.05 1.06%

MSG

101,349 packs and 506,745 cards total

Rarity Total CpP PoT
Legendaries per 1000 packs: 52.4
Com 363,577 3.59 71.75%
Rar 115,907 1.14 22.87%
Epi 21,952 0.22 4.33%
Leg 5,309 0.05 1.05%

Un'Goro

169,814 packs and 849,070 cards total

Rarity Total CpP PoT
Legendaries per 1000 packs: 52.9
Com 609,283 3.59 71.76%
Rar 194,025 1.14 22.85%
Epi 36,772 0.22 4.33%
Leg 8,990 0.05 1.06%

Additional Considerations Data as of April 10, 2017

Analysis Bias

This table shows how heavily the calculated legendaries drop rate depends on the data that is considered. If we include data from users that have added less than 100 packs per set, the legendaries drop rate - especially for Un'Goro - decreases.

The most likely explanation is that people who have entered fewer packs have not triggered their pity timers yet, however it's theoretically also possible that Blizzard has changed the pity fuction from set to set.

Packs Threshold Classic TOG MSG Ungoro
Legendaries per 1000 packs as a function of the packs threshold used for analysis
100 56.9 53.2 52.4 52.6
50 57.6 53.3 51.8 51.5
30 57.4 53.4 51.8 50.6
10 57.7 53.4 51.5 49.3

Statistical Significance

As you can see here, the distribution of legendary drop rates for individual users is a lot sharper for those who have opened at least 200 packs, as opposed to those - in this case - who have opened 50-100 packs.

In conclusion, the less packs you open, the more likely you are to get lucky or unlucky. The more packs you open, the more closely your drop rate will approach the expectation value.



Pack Opening Statistics - Golden Cards Only golden cards

CpP = Cards per Pack; PoT = Percentage of Total

All Sets

All Sets Golden

71,227 cards total

Rarity Total CpP PoT
Legendaries per 1000 packs: 3.4
Com 34,409 0.07 1.34%
Rar 29,508 0.06 1.15%
Epi 5,556 0.01 0.22%
Leg 1,754 0.0 0.07%

Sets Individually

Classic Goldens

19,300 cards total

Rarity Total CpP PoT
Legendaries per 1000 packs: 4.3
Com 9,471 0.07 1.49%
Rar 7,676 0.06 1.21%
Epi 1,605 0.01 0.25%
Leg 548 0.0 0.09%

GvG Goldens

67 cards total

Rarity Total CpP PoT
Legendaries per 1000 packs: 4.6
Com 32 0.07 1.46%
Rar 29 0.07 1.33%
Epi 4 0.01 0.18%
Leg 2 0.0 0.09%

TGT Goldens

1,573 cards total

Rarity Total CpP PoT
Legendaries per 1000 packs: 3.3
Com 743 0.07 1.42%
Rar 664 0.06 1.27%
Epi 132 0.01 0.25%
Leg 34 0.0 0.07%

TOG Goldens

15,324 cards total

Rarity Total CpP PoT
Legendaries per 1000 packs: 3.6
Com 7,384 0.07 1.42%
Rar 6,413 0.06 1.24%
Epi 1,156 0.01 0.22%
Leg 371 0.0 0.07%

MSG Goldens

14,368 cards total

Rarity Total CpP PoT
Legendaries per 1000 packs: 3.4
Com 6,903 0.07 1.36%
Rar 6,019 0.06 1.19%
Epi 1,099 0.01 0.22%
Leg 347 0.0 0.07%

Un'Goro Goldens

20,595 cards total

Rarity Total CpP PoT
Legendaries per 1000 packs: 2.7
Com 9,876 0.06 1.16%
Rar 8,707 0.05 1.03%
Epi 1,560 0.01 0.18%
Leg 452 0.0 0.05%